Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
